In 2016 I remember pitching the buyout of a distressed oil service sector company in front of an investment committee of a famous private equity firm. One of the convincing – at least I thought it was at the time – argument I made was that the oil price follows cycles, more or less correlated with global GDP, and my prediction was that we could expect a rebound two or three years down the line, even if we couldn’t perfectly call the bottom.
That remark was greeted with smirks and pitiful eyes, as if I was failing the same exam with the same mistake for the umpteenth time and, it goes without saying, my pitch did not see the light of the day. Sad.
In any case, allow me to tell you a quick story.